Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Successful Moments in Procrastination, volume 1

I get bored at work quite frequently, and find that number crunching various things is a great way to pass time. So here is a new segment that I call Successful Moments in Procrastination, or SMP.


Volume 1 - "Super Nationals"

So here's the concept - instead of four separate Nationals (Open/Womens, Mixed, AUG, Youth), how about one big week of Nationals at a nice location (Gold Coast?) where we run all 5 divisions at once? Do we have the numbers for that...

I went through the registrations for 2007 Nationals, Youth Nationals, Mixed Nationals and AUG to see where people doubled up over the year. First off, the people who only went to one...
  • Open only - 120
  • Women only - 94
  • Mixed only - 111
  • AUG only - 154
  • Youth only - 66
...which totals 545 players. That would give us 6 or 7 open teams, 6 women, maybe 8 mixed, 10 uni and 5 or 6 youth. Not much, hey? At the Australian Open it is not uncommon for players to double up in divisions, playing singles plus doubles and whatnot. So how many played two events?
  • Open & Mixed - 89
  • Women & Mixed - 87
  • Open & AUG - 23
  • Women & AUG - 18
  • Open & Youth - 2
  • Women & Youth - 3
  • Mixed & AUG - 31 (remember these two tournaments were one week apart)
  • Mixed & Youth - 14
  • AUG & Youth - 1
268 players, giving us 813 in total. Now we're up to 13 open, 12 women, 20 mixed, 16 uni, and 7 youth teams. Not far off the actual teams entered in each nationals in 2007. Then suppose you have the workhorses choosing to play three divisions...
  • Open, Mixed & AUG - 26
  • Women, Mixed & AUG - 13
  • Open, Mixed & Youth - 3
  • Women, Mixed & Youth - 1
...throwing an additional 43 players into the mix, bringing the total to 856. No one managed to make it to all four.

Now there's a handy fact - 1 in every 4 ultimate players (ie: current AFDA members) played at a National level tournament in 2007. Imagine 5 years down the track (sustaining membership growth at 20% for 2 years, then 10% for the next 3) having 6,800 members - with 1,700 playing at a Super Nationals tournament in October.

1 comment:

JdR said...

Spirit Goddess help me if anyone ever tried to run SuperNats! Lordy it'd be too big.

That said, I've always advocated that the size of Nationals should be determined by the bidders, rather than the AFDA. That is, if someone reckons they can accommodate more or less teams than the current 16 Open and 16 Women for Nationals, or 24 for Mixed, then that should go into their bid document and be one of the factors used to rate the bids.

As Ultimate continues to grow, I'd like to see people motivated to find sites to have more teams attending Nationals and Mixed Nats, rather than limiting the division sizes (to keep the event managable and the playing standard up).