2010 Nationals Preview - Part 3

Surprise! You get two posts today. It certainly helps that I wrote this one before I had written the other two, but for reasons no longer known to me I held it off until today. In Part 3 we look at the other half of the open draw - Pools C and D. More commonly known as the pools where two teams get punished on Day 1.



Pool C

HEADS OF STATE (1)
Base: Melbourne, VIC
Qualified: 1st in South
Last year: 3rd

For the second time in their history Heads of State carry the number 1 seed into Nationals. After an impressive 3rd place last year, they are chomping at the bit to go one step further and make their first final and continue their run towards World Clubs. They take a relatively unchanged lineup into this year - imports Eric Reynolds and Michael Stout have gone home and Tarrant Meehan is taking time off. They have been replaced by Kendall Thorn (Sublime), Jarrod Cowan (Monash Uni) and Chris "Toffa" Kaliviotis (Happy Pig 2009), and prodigal son Ashley Button returning. As always, the question that hangs over HoS is their mental game - can they win the tight games and keep their cool when the pressure is on? In my opinion I don't think this is their year, as they will most likely peak for World Clubs.

The gun: Jake Angelovich. Has had a phenominal 12 months. When he flips the switch he is virtually unstoppable.
The workhorse: Rueben Berg. A level-headed and smart player who also matches the athleticism and intensity of his team mates.
The X-factor: Mark Isherwood. The barometer of the team's mental state. If he loses his shit, the rest of the squad follow shortly.

Prediction: 5th




COLONY: PLUNDER (4)
Base: Sydney, NSW
Qualified: 2nd in East
Last year: -

"Hey, so if we take Thong who finished 2nd in Perth, and Fakulti who finished 6th and combine them, they'll come, like, 8th in Prague, right?" Well, no, but Colony - the result of the Sydney Elite Men project - are definitely going to make themselves known on an international stage in July. But until then, were are left with the traditional Sydney split - two even teams. And they're pretty damn even too. It's almost as if they went with the training scrimmage selection process of "stand next to someone the same size as you. Right, you're light and you're dark." But what matters on day 1 is who will win out of Heads of State and Colony: Plunder, because that is going to dictate who has a relatively easier run to the final. On paper, I think HoS might have the initial match-up but Colony will shine on day 2 onwards.

The gun: Ant Dowle. Can play anywhere, can match up on anyone. The man has it all.
The workhorse: Pete Blakeley. Everyone around him seems to move in slow motion.
The X-factor: Jonathan Potts. Some say he's past his best, and it's his first Nats since 2006 - can he still go out and win games?

Prediction: 3rd




FAKULTI (13)
Base: Sydney, NSW
Qualified: 6th in East
Last year: 7th/9th

Despite Colony plundering (top shelf punnery right there) most of Fakulti's top tier talent, the Sydneysiders have still managed to put together a relatively formidable lineup. With a decent mix of Fak veterans and enthusiastic newbies they should be able to challenge the mid-table, but I don't see them factoring in the top half of the draw come Monday. The disc skills among the handler set should be pretty consistent, but without a dominant receiver they will need to rely on a lot of run through the midfield, which the top level teams will be able to contain. Similar story D wise - they will need to work hard rather than rely on opportunity to get turns. I'm tipping them to break seed, but not by much.

The gun: Rhys Hearne. Has been with Fakulti for longer than most and will be taking the Captain Courageous role.
The workhorse: Alex Wong. Will provide a lot of the midfield run mentioned earlier.
The X-factor: Nathan Wong. Had a stellar 2009 with Fakulti and Macquarie Uni. Was unlucky to miss the U23s team. Very flashy player that will attract opposition attention.

Prediction: 12th




AUSSIE THUNDER (16)
Base: Australian Junior Team
Qualified: AFDA allocated
Last year: -

Last weekend I had the honour of being a Thunder punching bag in a practice game in Geelong. I had a shocker - more turnovers than completions and got totally bitched by several of the lads. But that aside, Thunder didn't exactly have a top performance either. To be fair they're still in the gelling stage of their elite development and know what improvement is needed. By the end of the game, they were playing like the team I expected to face. One thing I noted was a virtual absence of endzone gumbys - the 6 footers can be counted on one hand. They more than make up for this in pace and fitness and they are more than capable of an upset. Day one of the tournament will see them shaking the nerves off against the big teams, and on paper they should account for Fakulti. Sunday onwards will be their real test before Worlds. They will make mistakes but better to do it in Adelaide than Heilbronn.

The gun: Lochie Wise. Already has a couple of Nationals under his belt and going toe-to-toe with the country's best won't intimidate him.
The workhorses: Abraham and Isaac Stone. I was never sure which one I was looking at, but they both ramp up the intensity on D but know how to reel it in when playing O.
The X-factor: Marc Delgallo. Already has massive wraps as a receiver and willing to put the body on the line to get blocks.

Prediction: 11th





Pool D

COLONY: PILLAGE (2)
Base: Sydney, NSW
Qualified: 1st in East
Last year: -

And so here is the other half of the Colony brigade. I thought I'd be a genius and measure the difference between these two sides by how many of their contingent are actually on their World Clubs team. Pillage has 11 of them and Plunder has 10, so clearly Pillage are the better team. They also have the upper hand in training matches so it makes sense that I tip them to overcome their other half at the show. However that's not the point of note here in this pool. The Colony versus Chilly game at 5:00pm on Day 1 is likely to be the preview of the final. Whoever wins this game gets a sweet run through to Tuesday, so both will be rather hungry for early bragging rights. Pillage's key strength will be their defence and their ability to capitalise on any mistakes. Learn their names so you can heckle them in the final.

The gun: Pete Gardner. There isn't much the Garden Hose can't do on an ultimate field.
The workhorse: Abra Garfield. Must have the lung capacity of a horse, given he can sprint and scream simultaneously for six consecutive hours.
The X-factor: Tom Flanagan. Hasn't been to Nats since 2007, but still belongs there. Crazy throwing ability. By which I mean "crazy throwing" ability, not crazy "throwing ability".

Prediction: 2nd




CHILLY (3)
Base: Melbourne, VIC
Qualified: 2nd in South
Last year: 1st

The club that everyone loves to hate is gunning for their 5th national title, which would surpass the record of Pembroke High School in the late 70s and early 80s. However Chilly's efforts are probably more notable given that Nationals back in those days probably had two teams in bare feet. Chilly have their usual mix of stalwarts and fresh-faced rookies. Chilly's preparation always sees them reach their peak in the final two days, so expect a close loss in the early days, and a small rotation on Day 4. Their best performance usually comes in the final, so don't write them off early if Colony get up on Day 1.

The gun: Tom Rogacki. Has the ability to grab a game by the balls and make it his bitch.
The workhorse: Troy Booth. One of the fastest players in the game, and can keep up the pace for four days.
The X-factor: Shane Vuletich. The Franchise was a key part of their win in the final last year, and is being brought over for the same role. Fires when it counts.

Prediction: 1st




UMLAUT (14)
Base: Sydney, NSW
Qualified: 7th in East
Last year: 14th

Thanks to a wildcard, Umlaut get to have a second crack at Nationals. Last year in Perth they managed to topple a few opponents on the first two days but ended up in last spot. This year I believe that the Nationals field is of a much higher quality than last year, so will Umlaut be better in 2010? This year's lineup looks remarkably different, with a bigger squad for starters and more experience than last year's team. I don't see Umlaut being able to stand up to the top teams, but may be able to upset one of the mid seeds in the second phase of the drawer. That will be their best hope of beating their seed.

The gun: Wally Crocker. Intelligent player who will control a lot of the offence.
The workhorse: Dave Hayes. Will get plenty of under cuts and keeps the disc moving.
The X-factor: Michael Connolly. The Kiwi import should attract a bit of opposition attention.

Prediction: 14th




BAD APPLES (15)
Base: Hobart, TAS
Qualified: 5th in South
Last year: -

With their backs to the wall in the game-to-go at Southern Regionals, Bad Apples managed to win themselves the first open Nationals berth for a Tasmanian team in 3 years. After a few days of speculation following the tournament of whether they would have the numbers to make it to Adelaide, they confirmed their attendance with a few players coming out of the woodwork to go to the big dance. Two players they will sorely miss from the Southerns team are Mike Dunne and Tim Stoneman, who got most of their blocks and goals. Bad Apples' chances of success don't hang purely on Mike Baker's ability, but whether he gets the support he'll need.

The gun: Mike Baker. Holder of the Australian record for most tournament MVP awards ever.
The workhorse: Felix Kennedy. Fast defensive minded player who thrives in the open game.
The X-factor: Russell Nassim and Ahilen "G" Gankadharan. Two crossovers from Chilly B who work well together in the midfield, but will probably play further downfield in Adelaide.

Prediction: 16th