Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Nationals predictions - Part 2

Helloooo, ladies.

There is no way of saying that without sounding sleazy.

14 teams again this year. Wildcard looking to defend their title, Team Box looking to avenge last year's loss in the final, Ragine Wahine threatening to come over and win (again), and Sugar Mags looking rather stacked. You could just about throw a blanket over the top four teams this year. No clear favourite.

Pool K
Wildcard X-Factor (E1)
Sugar Magnolias (E2)
Primal (W1)

Wow. Sucks to be Primal. Using the old "AFDA number average" interpretation of their list, Primal seem to be bringing a relatively inexperienced squad this year. One of the games to watch on Day 1 is going to be Wildcard X versus Sugar Magnolias. It ought to be a quality game, but not as crucial as the Phase 2 matches against the Pool L teams. Wildcard seems to be a bit more handler heavy than the Mags, so if the weather is a bit sour, I'd expect Wildcard X to take the top spot

Wildcard X-Factor (2-0)
Sugar Magnolias (1-1)
Primal (0-2)


Pool L
Sporting Team Box Athletico United (S1)
Raging Wahine (Z1)
Hills Angels (E6)

Again, sucks to be Hills. Raging Wahine has a few names on their list that appearing on Tumeke's list in 2006, so these girls will be no strangers to the Australian scene. However Team Box are looking better this year than last - 5 Firebirds and 4 Terras (...that doesn't make sense) fronting up for them so it won't just be the Joy/Hussey/Liz Show. There's added depth this time around.

Team Box (2-0)
Raging Wahine (1-1)
Hills Angels (0-2)


Pool M
Southside (E3)
Factory Girls (E5)
Indies (S3)
Minx (N2)

I don't know if it's just how the seedings have panned out, or whether there is still a huge discrepancy between the East and the rest when it comes to womens' ultimate, but the outcome of this cusp pool seems quite obvious to me. Well, only in terms of top 2-bottom 2. I can't see Indies or Minx upsetting Factory Girls or Southside this year. In fact, I think all games will go to seed, with the exception of Minx beating Indies. Indies are a talented side, but they have a small squad which doesn't work unless you have two or three anchors who play 95% of points.

Southside (3-0)
Factory Girls (2-1)
Minx (1-2)
Indies (0-3)


Pool N
Honey (S2)
Wildcard Jokers (E4)
Sultry (N1)
Bush (S4)

Once again, this cusp pool doesn't seem very "cuspy". Perhaps in a parallel universe I'd tip Bush to upset Honey, but that didn't happen at Southerns, and Bush don't really have much depth this year. I also can't see Sultry rolling Honey or Jokers. Game to watch will be Honey/Jokers, but the real battle for these two will be in Phase 2 to see if they can break into the seemingly impenetrable top four. A tip? Um...Jokers.

Wildcard Jokers (3-0)
Honey (2-1)
Sultry (1-2)
Bush (0-3)


Part 3 was going to be a look at Phase 2 in the open draw, but I just realised if I get the Pool predictions wrong, then that will negate whatever I predict for Phase 2. Instead, when I do Part 3 and 4, they'll just be predicting the final placings for the open and womens' comps.

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