2010 Nationals Preview - Part 1

Ok, so my new site probably ain't gonna get a big fancy launch until after Nationals, so I thought I'd dust off and load up the old Ballarat Ultimate Commodore 64 to crunch some hard data and predict what is going to happen at this year's Australian Ultimate Championships. It all kicks (or pulls) off on Saturday April 24th in glorious Adelaide. This year nearly all of the best players in the country have made themselves available for the tournament, so it is sure to be one the highest quality Nationals seen in quite some time.

First off, we look at two pools in the Open Division - E and F.


Pool E

FIRESTORM (5)
Base: Brisbane, QLD
Qualified: 1st in North
Last year: 5th

Once again, Firestorm have to battle their way out of a cusp pool in order to have a crack at a semi finals berth. And Pool E is, if you will excuse the cliche, the POOL OF DEATH. Any of the four teams are capable of going through to the power pools, so expect some very close, hard fought matches on Day 1. With a slightly smaller roster than the other teams, Firestorm's best bet is to close out their second game against Eastern Greys early while Karma battle Fyshwick and hope that they are fresher going into the showcase game. If they can avenge their loss to Karma in the pool stages last year (they were also Mike Neild-less for that game) they should be able to fire in the power pools.

The gun: John McNaughton. Best lefty forehand in the country. Firestorm's key D man.
The workhorse: Adam Beu. While Liam Gillions is off being married, Jangles will be doing a lot of the receiving work.
The X-factor: Rob Trachter. Canadian import who impressed at BCI.

Prediction: 6th




KARMA (8)
Base: Adelaide, SA
Qualified: 3rd in South
Last year: 8th

Let's have a look at the last few Nationals and where the home team has finished compared to the previous year.

• 2009 - Perth. Sublime finished 6th, 8th the year before
• 2008 - Coffs Harbour. Doesn't count, no one's home town
  
• 2007 - Melbourne. Chilly won. Same as the year before
• 2006 - Sydney. One of the Fakultis came 2nd again, but the other went from 11th to 5th.

So as you can clearly see, science is on the side of the home team. There is no such thing as a home ground advantage in ultimate, but there is such thing as a home bed advantage (you play better if you sleep in your own bed the night before) so one would expect Karma to improve. With Huy Vu back on board, Karma should shake up some of the tournament favourites in the power pools. In any other year I'd see this lineup make the pre-semis however with the strength of this year's field they may have to settle with their seed.

The gun: Joel Pillar. Everyone knows him. I shouldn't need to explain.
The workhorse: Alec Deslandes. Can play O or D as required and gives Pillar an option other than Brett Middleton. Will rack up the D stats as well.
The X-factor: Tom Tullet. Already a club whore at age 19 (this is his 4th), Cupcake will work well with Vu, sending Pillar downfield.

Prediction: 8th

FYSHWICK UNITED (9)
Base: Canberra, ACT
Qualified: 4th in East
Last year: 2nd

After two runners-up placings two years in a row, Fyshwick will be hungrier than ever to bring the shield back to the nation's capital. On paper, FU can do no wrong. We know they have the list to win Nationals, but on the day they can't seem to be able to find the formula. But given their placing at Easterns with a relatively full strength team, has their chance for a title passed? If the Mighty Ducks movies have taught us anything, it is that you should never count out an underdog. But can you really give a team that boasts the likes of Jonno Holmes, Matt Dowle and Warwick Shepherd an "underdog" tag? Fyshwick should safely negotiate their way out of this pool and their tournament will begin on Day 2.

The gun: Jonno Holmes. The man is a freak. Expect to see him marked by the opposition's number one defender.
The workhorse: Max Wheeler. With the tall timber attracting a lot of attention, Wheeler will do a lot of damage on O.
The X-factor: Andrew Jackson. Made everyone stand up and pay attention in the final last year. Can he replicate that performance?

Prediction: 4th




EASTERN GREYS (12)
Base: WUCC Masters Team
Qualified: 5th in East
Last year: -

Usually there is a token team that fulfill the "wily veterans" quota of an ultimate tournament, but rarely do they actually boast themselves to be a masters team. With the WUCC tilt in full swing, the Greys will be looking to take some of the younger teams down a peg or two in what I assume will be some sort of ploy to steal their energy stocks. A telling factor in Greys games will be the weather - expect these guys to thrive in shit conditions, and given the fields' proximity to the beach an afternoon wind is almost a given. And if you'll allow me to consider a stereotype, expect a lot of shouty foul discussions as well.

The gun: Nathan Chan. Southside stalwart back when they existed, and a veteran (lol) of the Greys' last WUCC tilt.
The workhorse: Geoff Doty. Has never claimed he still has it, but he'll still try and do everything.
The X-factor: Piers Truter. Has embraced his masters-ness, but still played AUG last year. Go figure. I really hope a Thunder vs Greys match happens.

Prediction: 10th





Pool F

SUBLIME (6)
Base: Perth, WA
Qualified: 1st in West
Last year: 6th

It has been ten years since a Western Australian team finished higher than 6th at Nationals. The 5th/6th playoff seems to have been a bit of a hoodoo for Sublime, having lost that game four times (2004, 2005, 2007 & 2009). Will 2010 finally be the year they break through to the top 5? How do I put this gently? Erm...no. A home state Nationals last year afforded Sublime the best team they could field. This year they have lost Jason Carr, Paul Denyer, Tom Tulett, Kendall Thorn and Lochie Wise to other teams, plus Tim Delane, Max Daube, George Wong and Hamish Pope aren't coming for reasons unknown. Expect Sublime to slide down a bit, but not by much.

The gun: John Damiani. The "get the disc to JD" offensive structure has worked for quite some time.
The workhorse: Glen Fowles. Another player who had a great 2009, with Beach Worlds and U23s now on his resume.
The X-factor: Andrew Craig. Naans sightings at major tournaments have been few and far between lately. Let's see if the big man can still fly.

Prediction: 9th




I-BEAM (7)
Base: Newcastle, NSW
Qualified: 3rd in East
Last year: 4th

Every year Newcastle seem to stay shy of online trash talk and speculation in the run to Nationals, and yet they always seem to figure among the top few. Very few changes have been made to the team that came 4th last year - most notable is the loss of Gav Moore. I-Beam have always been a team that operate as a collective rather than a bunch of dudes who studied a playbook. Just looking at their warm-ups in Perth in 2009 - mini scrimmages all the time - showed that there is not much left for them to learn about ultimate. They just need to take advantage of any vulnerabilities they find in opposing teams and perform on the day. Despite rolling FU at Easterns, I don't see them being a better team than FU in Adelaide.

The gun: Tim Lavis. Equally adept as a handler and a receiver. Will be filling in gaps everywhere.
The workhorse: Chris Hill. Since 2007 has steadily progressed from a rookie with assloads of raw talent, to an elite ultimate player.
The X-factor: Jon Tatham. If Tats is in form, I-Beam is in form.

Prediction: 7th




ULTIMATE EVOLUTION (10)
Base: Adelaide, SA
Qualified: 4th in South
Last year: -

Thanks to the 5th qualification spot in the South, which they didn't even need, Evolution have broken through the Chilly-HoS-Karma-Chilly glass ceiling to line up for their first Nationals since 2006. However don't expect this team to be full of Nats virgins - most of them have seen action with Karma at some point in their careers. For the last few years Evolution has been viewed as easybeats at Regionals but so far their season has been their best. They notched up a win over Karma at Golden City Classic and nearly took down HoS as well. Evolution prefer a long game, with Denis Shine and David Sanderson aiming for tall receivers Kristian Pash, Morgan Llewellyn and Adam Dowley in the endzone. Expect some D antics from Sean Lace as well.

The gun: Denis Shine. I was tempted to say their "team game" is their best, but this isn't under 10s footy. Shine controls a lot of the offence.
The workhorse: David Sanderson. Will be the primary under cut most of the time, looking to hit receivers early.
The X-factor: Sean Lace. Wildly inconsistent, but if he gets a few D blocks early in a game, he will be a nuisance for opponents.

Prediction: 13th




GENGHIS (11)
Base: South East QLD/Northern NSW
Qualified: 2nd in North
Last year: -

Hmmm, I don't remember seeing this team registered for Northern Regionals. Non-qualifying bitterness aside, the Slamtown/Barbarians hybrid is basically a who's who of Queensland and Byron Bay ultimate who doesn't play for Firestorm. Despite the success of the Brisbane Premier League, Queensland seem to lack the depth at elite level that New South Wales and Victoria boast, so a 2nd North team that isn't Firestorm historically hasn't done well at Nats. In fact we have to go back to 2006 for the last time we saw two North teams in the top 10 (Dojo Mojo and Moreton Bay Buggers). Also having a small squad doesn't help - they're likely to run out of legs by the end of Day 3.

The gun: Andrew Badman. Also has the best surname in ultimate.
The workhorse: Jordan Stone. Otherwise referred to as "Hey let's make the kid do all the running."
The X-factor: Jason de Rooy. Because I know he'll read this.

Prediction: 15th




Pool K (women's) coming up tomorrow...