2010 Nationals Preview - Part 4

As recognised in Part 2, the field for the women's draw this year is probably the most competitive in recent years with all teams lining at-or-near full strength. Pool L looks like it is going to be rather fiery, with only the top three at the end of pool play still in the running for the title, and as many as five of the seven teams capable of securing one of those three spots.


Pool L

SPORTING TEAM BOX ATHLETICO UNITED (2)
Base: Melbourne, Vic
Qualified: 1st in South
Last year: 2nd

Twice now STBAU have been runners-up to Wildcard at Nationals. This year STBAU's training focus has been on fitness and conditioning to ensure they can maintain four days worth of pressure on the NSW teams and bring back Victoria's first women's Nationals. They finished 2nd at the BC Invitational this year to a veritable Sydney all star team. Now given that STBAU were at full strength at BCI, and the talent from that Sydney team will be diluted across three teams in Adelaide, I'd expect STBAU to overcome their Wildcard hoodoo this year. However Southside are now in their way.

The gun: Liz Edye. One of the most consistent and reliable throwers going.
The workhorse: Michelle Phillips. Fast and fit, generates a lot of options on O. Will step up her D when she needs to.
The X-factor: Clare Hussey. Can send better hucks than probably half (or more) of the open players.

Prediction: 2nd




WILDCARD CLUBS (3)
Base: Sydney, NSW
Qualified: 2nd in East
Last year: 1st

This year Wildcard have adopted a rather straight-forward method of dividing their squad - those going to World Clubs, and those not. If Eastern Regionals is a good indicator (and it usually is), Clubs are definitely stronger than Spades, so there is no need to try and separate them from each other a la Colony. Rather, we can look at history. Eight players (Rosalie Ashe, Ju Birchall, Bec Carman, Tara Carraro, Sarah Crossie, Megan Gamble, Fi McDonald and Loren Viswalingam) on the Clubs list were part of the winning squad from last year. Throw in, among others, two of the U23 team (Nicky Cotton and Silin Garfield) and you have a pretty damn good core squad. I think it's between Clubs and STBAU for top spot in this pool.

The gun: Sarah Crossie. Veteran of many Nationals under the Wildcard name, and anchored the 2006 WUCC tilt.
The workhorse: Fiona McDonald. Similar style player to Michelle Phillips, but has a stronger D game than O. Will match up on key opposition players.
The X-factor: Silin Garfield. Strode on to the Australian scene like she owned the place around 12 months ago. Now wearing the green and gold in Florence later this year.

Prediction: 3rd




SAND DUNES (6)
Base: Sydney, NSW
Qualified: 3rd in East
Last year: -

2007 we had Manly (aka no No NO), 2008 we had Hills Angels and 2009 we had...well, neither. But in 2010 we have an amalgamation of an area with a strong ultimate history, and a fast developing territory. Throw in some Brisbane reps and some Wildcard alums and it's looking more like the ultimate team equivalent of Voltron. At Eastern Regionals they surprised no one and took 3rd place and look to carry that momentum into Nationals. Most of the play will be generated from the work of Nikki Shires, Fiona McCrae, Natalie Roxburgh and Yvonne Shepherd so we can expect some smart, free flowing offence. Plenty of assistance on O will come from Peta McNaughton and Anna Haynes, with the Hills contingent running D. I have them tipped to take 3rd spot in this pool, but they will be under fire from Wildcard Spades and Black Betty.

The gun: Nikki Shires. Experience in all levels ranging from Worlds to stacked Stampede teams.
The workhorse: Liesl Cornell. Two years ago was new to the sport. Now is on the U23 women's team. Should be looking to test herself here.
The X-factor: Fiona McCrae. Been involved with many Wildcard tilts, so should know how to play against them.

Prediction: 4th




BLACK BETTY (7)
Base: Brisbane, QLD
Qualified: 1st in North
Last year: -

Fun fact: The last time a Brisbane women's team was in the top 6 at Nationals was in 2005. Since then, Sultry have languished around the 8-10 bracket, not quite able to break into the pre-semis. Since last year, the Sultry name has been put out to pasture and the Queensland women's movement has been reborn as Black Betty. They made an impressive debut at BCI, finishing 3rd ahead of Honey and took care of business in Northern Regionals. But how far can they go at Nats? The cynic in me tells me that Black Betty's lack of real competition in the north means that they haven't pushed themselves as far as they can go and they could be caught off guard on Day 1. Their first game against Terra will set the tone for the tournament. Lose, and they potentially carry a 1-2 record into games against STBAU, Sand Dunes and Wildcard Spades. A win though will give them a big confidence boost on Day 2 and keep them in contention for a pre-semi berth.

The gun: Kirsten Nott. Experienced Brisbane Premier League and Australian rep who will prey upon weaker opponents.
The workhorse: Maylin Chuah. Has spent most of her career at the top level, with several Nats and Mixed Nats appearances to her name.
The X-factor: Simone Ryan. Can negate a lot of deep attacks with her height. Will keep offence honest in windy conditions.

Prediction: 10th




HONEY DS (10)
Base: Melbourne, VIC
Qualified: 4th in South
Last year: 11th

As the name suggests, this team is a handheld version of Honey. Not really. They're Honey's "Development Squad" - girls who have been hand-picked from uni and league teams to train and play together. Which, on the face of it, is a B-team. Honey are a very tight-knit club and if anything, these girls are going to enjoy themselves for the whole tournament and I wouldn't be surprised if they took away the spirit award. While only three of this year's team fronted up in Perth, they still have some experienced hands in Nicky Smith, Nicky Taylor, Amy Meehan and Liz Blink. Will struggle to be competitive against the top half of teams but should give Terra, Black Betty and Spades a bit of a run.

The gun: Nicky Smith. She's the voice you'll hear the most.
The workhorse: Alysia Roberts. Has played a fair bit at the top level and her experience should benefit this team.
The X-factor: Jenelle Morton. Fast receiver who isn't afraid of a contest. Playing her first Nationals but could easily have played two years ago.

Prediction: 13th




WILDCARD SPADES (11)
Base: Sydney, NSW
Qualified: 5th in East
Last year: -

Boasting probably the most clever team name at this Nationals, Spades have 7 of last year's champion team backing up for another tilt. Outside this starting line Spades are taking a relatively inexperienced team to Adelaide. When you look at this from a development perspective, next year Wildcard will have close to 40 players who have a Nationals campaign under their belt. It is this kind of forward planning that will see them be a powerhouse for years to come. So what about this year? Since their 5th place at Eastern Regionals, Keah Molomby and Kylie O'Brien have been added to the roster, which easily gives them another 3 or 4 points per game. How Spades start each game will do a lot for the confidence of the younger players - a quick early lead will settle them into a rhythm, but being behind after 6 or 7 points will see the workload fall on the shoulders of the senior players. A tough day 1 (vs STBAU and Sand Dunes) but they should bounce back well on Day 2.

The gun: Keah Molomby. No fear on the field and her team mates will feed off her intensity.
The workhorse: Rach Brennan. Will steady the ship on O and play smart D. Showed at AUG with UTS that she can lead a charge if the team is down.
The X-factor: Kylie O'Brien or Andrea Wang - take your pick.

Prediction: 6th




SOUTHERN TERRA (13)
Base: Australian Junior Team
Qualified: AFDA allocated
Last year: -

While I've seen them at training camps a couple of times this year, I'm yet to see Terra play under proper match conditions. Five of the 2008 silver-medal winning team (Emily Gibbs, Chloe McDonald, Sophie Murdoch, Cat Phillips and Nicky Sutton) are back for another World Juniors campaign and will be the lynch-pin of this team, particularly on O. It was their zone D that won the now famous semi final at Worlds last time around, and a fast and fit team has been selected that will implement that at crunch times again. One area that they could potentially be vulnerable in is a deep game. They don't have height for straight up aerial contests, and their inexperience at a National level could see them getting out-positioned. Expect to see them fight their one-on-ones on in cuts. Unfortunately I think there will be too many unrecoverable mistakes on offence to win games in Adelaide, but hopefully they will be able to go away, learn from those mistakes and defend their 2nd place finish in Heilbronn.

The gun: Cat Phillips. Stats, stats and more stats. Double if they're from hammers.
The workhorse: Chloe McDonald and Sophie Murdoch. The Castlemaine girls don't get intimidated and will play aggressive D.
The X-factor: Clare Hollebone. Matt Hill brought her along after seeing her at a couple of beginners clinics and she's straight into the team. Looking forward to seeing what he sees.

Prediction: 12th




Well that's it for this year's Nationals predictions, and for Ballarat Ultimate. It's been a great run here at Blogspot, but as of tomorrow I'll be at a new home on the internet and keeping up the usual brand of idle speculation, unwarranted potshots and blissful ignorance that you've come to know and love over the years.