2010 Nationals Preview - Part 2

Just over a week away from the opening game. For those who won't be in Adelaide, I'll be covering Monday and Tuesday games on Twitter. Today we look at the first half of the women's draw. Since the division isn't fully booked out, the 13 teams will play in two pools, with the top place being rewarded with a free pass to the semi finals. Given the standard of the teams involved, I'd see the key games being Southside vs Honey (3:00pm on Sunday), STBAU vs Wildcard Clubs (same time), and even Sand Dunes vs Wildcard Clubs (9:00am Sunday) and STBAU (11:00am Saturday). But before I go predicting winners, let's look at the teams.



Pool K

SOUTHSIDE (1)
Base: Sydney, NSW
Qualified: 1st in East
Last year: -

After an absence from Nats last year, the sky blue (light blue, pale blue, baby blue? Whatever) jerseys are back in action this season and stamped their authority all over the dominant East region in March. Southside's hiatus has done nothing to slow them down and they enter the tournament as near-favourites, with cross-town rivals Wildcard and pesky Victorians Sporting Team BAU being their main rivals. So what to expect from Southside? Expect a long game, which is only effectively used by the top teams at Australian Nationals, so against the mid to lower level teams there will be aggressive D followed by run and gun O. Southside will aim to win games to 15 early and often.

The gun: Sarah Wentworth. Chosen in the interest of keeping this section short.
The workhorse: Carlie Ryan. Again, most of the squad could go here. They all work well together.
The X-factor: Lisi Moore. Prior to Regionals, Moore hadn't lined up for Southside since 2006 World Clubs in Perth. Will be interesting to see if she brings a new style to the team.

Prediction: 1st




HONEY (4)
Base: Melbourne, VIC
Qualified: 2nd in South
Last year: 4th

How long does it take to build a club from scratch into a national champion? Five years? Six? Longer? Look at it this way - in 2006 Honey took 2 teams to Nationals and finished 11th and 15th. Last year their A team finished 4th, and with WUCC looming they are looking to go one step further and make the final. Trouble is, Sporting Team BAU have been in their way of winning Southern Regionals, and Wildcard have been an obstacle at the national level. Throw Southside into the mix this year and things aren't looking good based on history. So what is different this time around? Only 5 of the 2006 team remain (Jo Creswell, Mel Gangemi, Cath Matthews, Michelle Rogers and Marcy van Blaricum) however they are missing key receiver Lauren Brown from their 2009 tilt so they may reel their long game in slightly.

The gun: Cath Matthews. Plays aggressive O and will be looking for power position a lot.
The workhorse: Jo Creswell. I figure seeing three months of "doing more hill sprints" status updates on Facebook is leading to some sort of payoff.
The X-factor: Kerry Justus. Will be the first look on deep shots in the absence of Lauren Brown. Has height and can take a high grab.

Prediction: 5th




KAOS (5)
Base: Perth, WA
Qualified: 1st in West
Last year: 5th

After arriving on the scene in stylish fashion last year, now it is time for Kaos to prove they belong in the top half of the draw. Without the home bed advantage and a much stronger field this time around, the WA girls will have a much harder time making the top 5. Unfortunately I don't think this crop can do it. That being said, 2009 was not a fluke. This time around without Charlotte De Latte, Lou Delane, Esther Barter and Simone Ryan leaves them without the experience that is needed in April. Couple that with the Firetails, Barramundis and as-yet-unnamed-u23s players that many other teams will boast and Kaos lack, I Kaos will be mid-table at best.

The gun: Danya Meakins. Has been a standout for UWA at Uni Games for the past few years. Expect her to be on the end of a few hucks.
The workhorse: Sally Ray. Fulfilling the captain role and will lead by example on the field.
The X-factor: Sarah McKerracher. Spent some time playing in the eastern states in 2008 so should know a few of the tricks others will get up to.

Prediction: 11th




SUGAR MAG-ROLL-IAS (8)
Base: Newcastle, NSW
Qualified: 4th in East
Last year: 3rd

Well last year I horribly underestimated the Newcastle ladies so this year I will paint them with a more optimistic brush. The Sugar Mags have a smaller squad (14) than most teams, but the sheer pace and fitness of their squad won't make this a relevant factor if we ignore the possibility of injuries. However the Mags have two big losses - Lisi Moore (to Southside) and World Games rep Katie Bradstock (probably to some other sport). The gains of Hope Watson and Sarah Jones will give the Kings some handy assistance on O, but the team could be exposed deep on D against the likes of Southside, Wildcard and STBAU. Should beat their seed, but top 4 might be just out of their reach.

The gun: Katie King and Leanne King. There isn't much these two haven't seen on an ultimate field.
The workhorse: Ellie Sparke and Liz Dodd. Have played side-by-side since way back when. Work incredibly well together as handlers or mids.
The X-factor: Tegan Sneddon. Instead of looking at the loss of Bradstock's pace, teams should be wary of Sneddon's.

Prediction: 7th




INDIES (9)
Base: Adelaide, SA
Qualified: 4th in South
Last year: 10th

Fun fact: The best performance by an Adelaide women's team at Nationals is 7th in 2005, however the more astute (and cynical) readers will remember that there were only 8 women's teams at that Nationals. Their performances under the Indies banner aren't that remarkable (2007 - 13th of 14, 2008 - 12th of 14, 2009 - 10th of 11) but I sense a change of fortune for the Ade-ladies in 2010. You see in the last 12-18 months there has been a concentrated effort on elite development in SA, with development camps, single gender leagues, WUCC tilts, AUG medals and the like. There were early rewards for the men last year with their 8th place finish, so can Indies expect similar payoffs this year? My tip is that with Nic Footer and Anna Rogacki on board, they will improve, but not extraordinarily.

The gun: Anna Rogacki. The elite player Indies have needed.
The workhorse: Karen Palmer and Alison Clarke. With Rogacki and Footer to anchor the offence, these two are freed up a bit and can run riot.
The X-factor: Lara Dyus. I am yet to see her play, but U23 selection warrants some attention.

Prediction: 8th




FACTORY GIRLS (12)
Base: Canberra, ACT
Qualified: 6th in East
Last year: 7th

Canberra women's teams are perennial mid-tablers. Not since the runners-up glory they enjoyed in 2003 have they finished outside the 4th-7th bracket. This year fACTory Girls carry in a squad of 14 and the number 12 seed. Having a look at the rest of the pool, I don't see this team overcoming the three teams required to have a crack at the pre-semis. Interesting (and possibly masculinity-threatening) to note is the age of this squad - the youngest is Erin Wallis at 24 years old. Many of their battles could become level-headed experience versus youthful exuberance. I think fACTory Girls could thrive in bleak weather conditions, but on perfect days they may be outgunned.

The gun: Vickie Saye. If you're going to tag anyone, you'll be tagging her.
The workhorse: Mica Hartley. Provided a lot of ANU's run through the middle at AUG last year, and I imagine she'll play a similar role here.
The X-factor: Erin Wallis. A solid anchor on O who will initiate a lot of play. Very handy on D as well.

Prediction: 9th